Boom or Bust

For those looking to invest in the real estate market?keep your eyes on the headlines. According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), the number of areas across the U.S. with real estate booms shot to 55, increasing by nearly two-thirds last year. The FDIC warns, "these booms may be followed by busts".

"Boom" areas are defined as having inflation-adjusted prices at the end of 2004 that were up 30% or more in three years.

Of the 362 major metropolitan cities included in this study, over 15% were boom areas. This data, analyzed by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, more than doubles the peak of the 1980's booms and is the highest ratio of boom markets in 30 years.

As for "boom or bust", busts are rare. Only 17% of U.S. housing booms from 1978-1998 ended in busts, which are defined as a 15% or more drop in home prices over a five-year period.

What is making the market soar? Aside from inflation, the mortgage industry has to be considered first. Adjustable rate and interest only mortgages are growing in numbers and subprime loans now account for 10% of all mortgage loans.

With interest rates lower than they've been in years, borrowers can afford to finance an amount greater than the standard 80% loan to value. The percentage of loans exceeding 80% of the purchase price has grown to over 30%. If a borrower has an adjustable rate mortgage and the interest rates rise, their payments increase. If the market values drop, or bust and they have 90% or 95% loan to value, they owe more on the home than it is worth. But these are all "What ifs??".

In the markets with the highest number of "boom" cities, California with 21 cities has a high increase rate of 58% and Florida with 11 cities has a high increase rate of 54%. These two states alone account for 60% of the boom areas! With these numbers, would you purchase an investment property in Florida or California and flip it in three years for a possible return upwards of 50%?

Of course. A relatively sound investment. How much longer can the market withstand these price increases before it busts? Even history shows a period of time when the market stalls so that inflation can catch up. If you want to invest in real estate, carefully examine the history of the market you are purchasing in! If it has been booming like Florida and California, be careful how long you hold on to the property. If you notice the market is starting to drop, sell. Hold on too long, it may bust!

Jason M. Rigler
Cash now for future payments

Also: David W. Higgins, David Bohnett and more.

Reality TV star and singer Heidi Montag has been hiding out by the beach this summer at a Malibu place she rented for $25,000 a month, according to the Multiple Listing Service. But she moved on in late August, and the gated contemporary is back on the market at $5.5 million.

A Long Beach couple struggling with mortgage payments find out their home's been auctioned off by Wells Fargo when the new owner's representative shows up on their doorstep.

Mike and Ellen Kahara knew times were tough. They'd run up about $30,000 in debt on their credit cards and had fallen about $8,000 behind on their mortgage payments.

The 1960s Buff & Hensman-designed Wong House has a pool, a walled garden and downtown and ocean views.

It seems as though actress Scarlett Johansson had no sooner sold her old place in the Hollywood Hills than she and her husband, actor Ryan Reynolds, closed on a house in Los Feliz for $2.9 million.

Completed a few years ago, a Normandy-style estate was built to look a century old.

Glen and Linda Keane felt guilty about tearing down the O'Melveny family home. After all, John O'Melveny was part of a group of Los Angeles businessmen who formed Lake Arrowhead Co. in the 1920s and oversaw the lake's development into a popular resort destination.

The mortgage giant quietly launches the HomePath program, which offers subprime-era terms for buyers: minimal down payments, no appraisals, no mortgage insurance and lower minimum credit scores.

If you're a buyer with little cash or a small-scale investor looking for a deal on a foreclosed house, a little-publicized national lending program could be just what you need this fall.

How some of our previously featured properties have fared in the sales market.

Buff & Hensman-designed beach house

Lenders lose an estimated $310 million annually in undervalued short-sale transactions, according to a study released in August.

Question: I am fed up with my homeowners association and successive boards for sabotaging owner requests for records and refusing to fix maintenance problems in common areas that directly affect individual units. I believe I have no other choice than to sue the association and the boards. What are the steps I have to take?

Keeping tenant out over concerns of illegal activities may be viewed as a 'constructive eviction.' Such moves as changing the locks to prevent access can bring significant penalties.

Question: I own a couple of houses that I rent out for extra income. Unfortunately, they are not in the best part of our town. I have a tenant living in one of them who may be dealing drugs or doing something else illegal because the police have arrested him several times. Every time he is arrested he makes bail and returns to the house in a day or so. Even though he pays the rent on time, I realize that I can't continue to allow him to live in my house. My plan is to change the locks the next time he is arrested, so he can't come back into the house. I know that I need to protect his property inside the house if I do this, but my plan is to move his belongings into a storage locker. I can't afford a lawyer to file an eviction case, so this is my only alternative. Will I be OK if I do this?

July's increase from June in the National Assn. of Realtors' gauge for previously owned residences follows two straight months of declines and a report that sales of such homes dived 27.2%.

An index of home purchase contracts for previously owned dwellings unexpectedly increased 5.2% in July over June, the National Assn. of Realtors said Thursday, a modest note of good news for the U.S. housing market.